From the Bleachers: September 2011

Monday, September 26, 2011

MLB Monday catchup. The AL MVP race and the AL Wild card race.

As we cruise to the end of the MLB season, there is an awful lot of copy being written in particular about the AL MVP. Should a pitcher be considered? Should it go to a player who is playing for a team that is seventeen games out in its division?

This column's suggestion is leading the AL with a sparkling .341 batting average. He is tied for first with a sensational .447 OBP (On base percentage). He is tied for second place with 47 doubles and is right up there in home runs (tied 7th) and RBIs (tied 7th). Our candidate is tied for 2nd in the AL with 108 walks and is second in slugging and OPS.

It isn't just the numbers.

Our candidate is the scariest bat, the leading Superstar, the main man on a team that has absolutely run away with their division, and are cruising on auto pilot into the postseason. The Detroit Lions would be nothing without Miguel Cabrera. He makes that entire lineup tick. People say the Tigers would be in trouble without big Justin Verlander, well, they would be completely screwed without 'Miggy'.

There are other worthy candidates. Bear in mind, you are hearing this from an avid Red Sox fan. This column would love to see Gonzo or Jacoby take the MVP award. However, you can't deny Miggy is the glaringly obvious logical candidate. Powerful statistics on a winning team, and you can not imagine that same team without him. With all due respect to the incredible tear Jose Bautista is on, he is doing it for a team that is going to be breaking up and going on holidays very, very soon. In three games time, to be exact.

One man ticks all the AL MVP boxes. Statistically and in terms of intangibles too. Miguel Cabrera, your AL MVP. Just remember you heard it here first.

With just three games left in the chase for the final spot in the playoffs, otherwise known as the Wild Card, the last three contenders for the American League are breaking out their heavy artillery. The three teams, Boston, Tampa and Anaheim, are unleashing nine of the best pitchers in Major League Baseball in a last ditch attempt to break into the playoffs on the tails of the division winners.

Check out this murderers row of serious pitching talent

Imagine you were a GM and you were able to cherry pick a five man rotation from that group. Personally I would go with;

Price
Beckett
Weaver
Lester
Santana

Can you imagine throwing that five out every week?

As the great Homer Simpson would say, ‘I digest’. The main topic the next few nights is clearly, who’s going forward, and which two teams can go ahead and make their holiday plans. The Angels are basically out of it, as they would have to win all three and have Boston and Tampa lose all three. That’s highly unlikely. The Red Sox have a one game lead on the Rays, so they need to win two and hope Tampa lose one, basically.

I don’t see it being that complicated. Boston happens to have the right guys at the right time, and you will probably have noticed their bullpen has come right lately. Beckett\Bedard\Lester is more than enough to win three straight against the Orioles.

Boston started the game with a damp squid 2-10 record, and there was plenty of Schadenfreude doing the rounds. However they then righted the ship in spectacular fashion. This Column thinks they will right the ship again, starting tonight.

There is just too much talent there for the alternative.

Tuesday, September 20, 2011

Panic about the Red Sox? Not just yet.

Alright so, let’s kick things off by stating the obvious. As Sox fans, you are disappointed, I am disappointed, we are all disappointed. This has been a singularly painful couple of weeks baseball, as the Red Sox have frittered away a big lead in the Wild Card faster than Michael Vick wasted away his first hundred million dollar contract. The Internet is bulging wider than Val Kilmer’s waist line today with doom and gloom stories revolving around the Sox damp, drab couple of weeks shenanigans.

Well, much as we all love definitive statements and stories with a neat, tidy bow wrapped around them, there is much more to this Sox ‘collapse’ story than meets the eye. A little perspective is required amongst the slumping, screaming, slashing, headlines.

First things first, the Sox are getting healthier every day. They welcomed back Josh Beckett on the weekend, and when Erik Bedard takes the hill tomorrow Tuesday, their starting rotation will almost be back to full strength. With a two game lead on Tampa, if Boston manages a handful of wins in the run in, they can start resting their pitchers for the playoffs. They are not chasing. They are being chased.

Secondly, much as most old school baseball fans hate them, statistics are a part of the game. An integral part, you could argue. Well, the ‘surging’ Tampa Bay Devil Rays have an 11.4 percent chance of making the playoffs, and Boston are still in possession of a meaty 88.2 percent chance going into tonight’s double header with the woeful Orioles.

Speaking of which, thirdly, in their last ten games of the 2011 season, Boston faces the Baltimore Orioles seven times. That’s right, 70% of Boston’s remaining games are against the Orioles. The 62-89 Baltimore Orioles. If the Red Sox fail to reach the playoffs, nobody is going to be able to blame the run-in schedule. Boston has its destiny firmly in its own hands. If Boston goes 6-4 over the last ten games, Tampa has to go 8-2 just to tie. Who does Tampa have in seven of its remaining ten games? The New York Yankees. As those two sluggers bash chunks out of each other, Boston will be playing against the Quadruple-A Orioles.

If anything, you could actually argue that because New York and Tampa will be taking games off each other in the run in, with Boston facing the Orioles, they might actually still have a shot at the AL East.

However, that’s not what people are writing. We are being subjected to endless drivel about how Tampa are playing the best baseball in the Majors right now (Gosh, imagine playing decent baseball with one of the best rotations in the game! Shocker!) and the Sox are going to be swept aside by some sort of Devil Ray revolution. Please, spare us the endless pap about the Rays ‘playing fearless baseball’. They caught Boston at the exact right time, wounded, injured and playing with more AAA players than we shall see in the run in. No doubt screaming about disastrous end of season flops makes for good copy, however when you calmly consider all the facts, the Red Sox will most likely get healthy, beat up on the Orioles and cruise into the playoffs.

What happens then, however, is a whole new ball game.

Linkage

Comments
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Friday, September 16, 2011

NFL Picks: Week two: The sophmore slump

The curse of having a 'good week' at the coalface that is NFL picks is, the only way is down. Way down. This columns went 11-4 against the spread last week, and that should have been an enjoyable achievement, instead it is weighing this column down, an albatross around its neck. How can we go 11-4 again? So much expectation! The only answer is, success is depressing. Mediocrity is the obvious way forward. Here's to a nice, Toronto Blue Jays, Ryan Reynolds, Stoke City, 'average' kind of week, a nice 8-8 week.

Last weeks totals against the spread - 11-4
Running total - 11-4

On to the picks.

Oakland @ Buffalo -3.5
The theme of week two from a gambling perspective is undoubtedly ‘over-reaction’. When was the last time Buffalo were -3.5 against anyone? Was Jim Kelly at the helm? Buffalo have a whiff of friskiness about them, but you would have to argue, did they turn into World beaters over night? Should we suddenly be considering the 1000/1 Superbowl odds on the back of one win against a very erratic Kansas side? Backing Buffalo does not pass the million dollar test. That is, if someone handed you a million dollars and told you to place a single bet on this game, you would only have one ‘safe’ option, right?
The Pick: Oakland +3.5

Chicago @ New Orleans -7.5
So I guess we are continuing to ignore the fact that Chicago actually won the NFC North last season? It is incredible how the sporting media can affect the general consensus on a given team. There is no way the Bears are more than a touchdown underdogs to New Orleans. Not right now. Everyone is aware the Saints top two wide outs are probably out of this game, right? Maybe at their peak the Saints would be ‘that’ scary, but not right now. A more realistic handicap would have been -3 or maybe even -4.5, but over a touchdown? Really? Take the points and watch the Bears keep it close.
The Pick: Chicago +7.5

Cleveland @ Indianapolis +2.5
More market over-reaction. The Colts will be more prepared, Kerry Collins will have had another week to get his house in order, the Colts will be pumping crowd noise in like nobody’s business, and Cleveland are still reeling from losing badly to the Bengals last week. Just a feeling, but take the few points on offer in what should be a close one, and side with the slightly more desperate of the two. Not often you get a home dog with as many quality players (Freeney, Garcon, Collie, Clarke) as the Colts have.
The Pick: Indianapolis +2.5

Kansas @ Detroit -8.5
You know at first This Column balked at the sight of that gaudy looking handicap. However, then we considered the game more closely. Detroit are on a serious upswing. Kansas are in complete disarray. Detroit won a tough road game against another up and coming team with a potentially great QB (Tampa/Josh Freeman) while Kansas were completely humiliated by one of last season’s worst sides (Buffalo). Detroit have a veritable tone of momentum going into this one, and frankly nothing bar the reverse lock theory can save Kansas. The Lions score early and often and questions start getting asked in Kansas.
The Pick: Detroit -8.5

Green Bay @ Carolina +10.5
What on earth is going on here? Is this the run in to the playoffs, are Carolina already out of it and are Green Bay playing for their lives? How on earth are we already dishing out double figure handicaps?! Everyone saw Cam Newton play last week, right? Once again, Carolina go into a game with two dynamic running backs and a sense that they have nothing to lose. Their explosive rookie QB was the toast of the NFL last weekend, yet the bookies don't appear to be anywhere near impressed by his strong opening showing. Admittedly the Packers are a fine unit, and torched the Saints, but they had their own home crowd and that particular opening night momentum behind them. Carolina get that on Sunday, and can ride that and the youthful exuberance of Cam Newton to, well, to within 10 points anyway!

The Pick: Carolina +10.5

Baltimore @ Tennessee +5.5

Oh those saucy Ravens! Such a tease. That was an overwhelming showing against the bemused looking Steelers last week. Everything on both ends of the ball went right for Baltimore. More often than not, unless you are the 2007 Patriots, perfection is not the norm within the confines of the NFL. Meanwhile, Tennessee continue to search for an identity. Chris Johnson continues to attempt to get going. A home opener and a sense of urgency point to Tennessee keeping this close.

The Pick: Tennessee +5.5

Tampa @ Minnesota -3.5

Tampa ran into the exploding star of momentum that is the Lions. Let's just say the Vikings do not quite represent that much potential energy. Josh Freeman gets his 2011 season going by leading the Buccs to a show road win against a Vikings team looking for an identity amongst so much change.

The Pick: Tampa +3.5

Jacksonville @ New York Jets -10.5

Oh right, I thought it was the completely and utterly ringless New York Jets, but according to those 10.5 points in the handicap this is the '85 freakin Bears. C'mon man! Hey, there's no doubt the Jets are a decent ball club and etc and etc, however Jacksonville know what they have to do, which is namely ram the bowling ball that is Maurice Jones Drew into the line 35-40 times and pray he comes out the other end for 120-130 yards. This clown thinks he does.

The Pick: Jacksonville +10.5

Arizona @ Washington -4.5

That was a fantastic opening from the 'Skins, who look younger, hungrier and more, well, more 'into' the whole thing. Washington won all the little battles against a wildly over matched Giants team. Arizona meanwhile had a nice little opener to themselves. Beanie Wells stayed on the field for an entire game, a miracle in itself, and Kevin Kolb looked like the real deal. A major red flag however is 'Zona's horrific road results the last few seasons. Add to the the fact that Wells could hobble off the gridiron at any time, and you find yourself grunting, and saying ''Well, maybe Washington are the pick!''

The Pick: Washington -4.5

Seattle @ Pittsburgh -14.5

Okay now this one wide margin handicap I actually understand. Seattle are a complete mess. In almost every element of the game. The Steelers are licking their wounds, and have to come out flying to bring their home crowd back in on the deal. Seattle could be in for a royal hiding here.

The Pick: Pittsburgh -14.5

Dallas @ San Francisco -2.5

Good for Alex Smith. Now he's only the eleven games under .500 for his NFL career. The Cowboys looked pretty feisty last week in New York, and have the tools and skills to beat the Niners, even on the road.

The Pick: Dallas +2.5

Cincinnati @ Denver -5.5

When This Column first saw this line, jaw dropping did follow. While Denver are busy losing at home to Oakland and spending the rest of the week ripping themselves apart from the inside with one of the more head scratching QB controversies of all time, The Bungles were busy proving themselves to be in possession of, you know, heart. If they keep this up, The Bungles will be a term of endearment, rather than one of derision.

The Pick: The Bengals +5.5

Houston @ Miami +2.5

What's the over for this one? Anything below ninety is still tasty. Miami have jettisoned their running game in favour of slinging the ball round the park like one of those 50-60 pass attempt Bledsoe led Patriot teams of the nineties. Meanwhile Houston kicked the dog that is the Colts while it was down last week, piling on the points like a big bully. We could easily see eighty points combined here.

The Pick: Houston -2.5

San Diego @ New England -6.5

Gosh imagine that! San Diego struggling to cover an early season whopper of a handicap last week? We all know the script when it comes to the Chargers. Start slow, come on strong, evaporate when the playoffs start. They do it every single season, they are as predictable as the seasons. Or at least, as predictable as the seasons were, you know, a decade ago. Meanwhile, The Brady Bunch look like they have decided to dust off the old 2007 playbook and let loose the old passing game. How on earth are teams going to cover not one but two incredible Tight Ends? And by the way, remember, you heard it hear first, Hernandegronk is a beast. With Welker and Branch catching everything thrown within ten feet of them, and Ochocinco, eh, providing a distraction, it is a nightmare for any defensive coordinator to rein in the Patriots. The obvious answer would appear to be, get after Brady, but the Patriots offensive line is good enough to give him enough time to pick apart any Blitzing defence. It is early, but the Patriots look really, really good.

The Pick: The Patriots and Hernandegronk -6.5

Hernandegronk

Philadelphia @ Atlanta +2.5

Interesting smoke and mirrors for these two last week. While the Eagles had their way with a injury riddled Rams, the Falcons had to endure a bit of a bashing at the hands of the Bears. The same Bears who won the NFC North last season. And the same Bears who were enjoying the momentum of their home opener. This week, the market correction will apply itself, and the Falcons and their bevy of brilliant receivers, will cause the Eagles more headaches than expected.

The Pick: Atlanta +2.5

St Louis @ New York Giants -6.5

No Steven Jackson? You want to say 'No problem', however, the fact of the matter is the Rams relied heavily on Jackson last season, he often single handedly kept them in games. Without him there's no need to stack the line. The Giants can pin their ears back and go after Bradford. The Giants do not look like world beaters, however the home opener factor, combined with a tinge of desperation after losing last week, should provide enough impetus to whitewash a badly bruised Rams team that's going to have to get healthy to realise its promise.

The Pick: The Giants -6.5

Good luck all ya'll.

Feel free to copy and paste the below into the comments section to do your own picks!
Week 2
Oakland @ Buffalo -3.5
Chicago @ New Orleans -7.5
Cleveland @ Indianapolis +2.5
Kansas @ Detroit -8.5
Green Bay @ Carolina +10.5
Baltimore @ Tennessee +5.5
Tampa @ Minnesota -3.5
Jacksonville @ New York Jets -10.5
Arizona @ Washington -4.5
Seattle @ Pittsburgh -14.5
Dallas @ San Francisco -2.5
Cincinnati @ Denver -5.5
Houston @ Miami +2.5
San Diego @ New England -6.5
Philadelphia @ Atlanta +2.5
St Louis @ New York Giants -6.5

Linkage

Thursday, September 15, 2011

Sunderland striker Asamoah Gyan moves to a club with an average attendance of 2,513

It is obviously not ground breaking news to report that many athletes are greedy, however sometimes the sheer audacity of their actions are breath taking. How stupid do these clowns think we, the fans, are? Why do they insist on the same clichéd, asinine statements about moving for trophies or whatever, when the only reason they are moving is so they can afford to wipe their backsides with surplus cash?

Consider former Sunderland strikers, the Ghanaian Asamoah Gyan

Gyan was plying his trade relatively successfully for English Premiership side Sunderland. He was scoring goals, and basically progressing his career in a positive manner. However, despite the fact that he has three years remaining on his contract, Gyan came back to Sunderland for training after the summer a completely hollow ghost of a player. In short, he was making no effort at all in training, or indeed in matches. He was, effectively, on strike. His agent and possibly other people in his inner circle were motivating him to look for a big money move elsewhere. Again, despite the fact that he had signed his name to a legal, binding contract promising his services to Sunderland at least until 2014.

Cue Gyan’s move to Al-Ain.

Unbelievably, Gyan has tried to paint this move as one motivated by his craft. He has laughably called the United Arab Emirates club Al-Ain ‘Important’. In doing that he is basically calling all Sunderland and sports fans, completely stupid. Gyan said

'I'm really happy to be here. Al-Ain is an important club and this is a big challenge for me. ‘’

So Al-Ain are an ‘important’ club, eh? Ever hear of their manager, Cosmin Olăroiu? Me neither. Al-Ain play in the Khalifa Bin Zayed Stadium which holds a whopping 15,000 fans at capacity. Gyan will be undoubtedly the talk of those throbbing terraces! I imagine many thousands will pour in to watch his first training session! Interesting to note that Al-Ain have not won their own league since 2004. Perhaps there are even more important clubs in the UAE that Gyan can move to, if this current stint doesn’t prove, you know, important enough for him.

Gyan is going from playing in front of approximately 40,000 a week to a league where the average attendance is currently 3,240. (Average crowd at Etisalat Pro-League games in the 2010/11). The ‘important’ team Gyan is joining can’t even match that average, their pitiful average attendance is 2,513 per match. I suppose we should mention that is actually in increase on last season’s completely pathetic 1,503 a game.

Let’s call this whole thing what it is, a very bad joke.

It is clear for all to see that the only reason Gyan is committing career suicide by moving to a club that has a lower average attendance than most English Sunday league teams, is money. Word on the street is Gyan has managed to triple his salary to pursue tax-free wages of £200,000 a week. Wonderful. Let us hope that his bed of money keeps him warm on those chilly Arabian nights.

Back to Gyan again;

‘’There will be a lot of expectations on me, but not pressure.’’

On that note, you are absolutely right, Asamoah. No pressure at all. How could there be? There won’t be anyone watching you! Have fun at the packed Khalifa Bin Zayed Stadium. You will have plenty of personal space and time to roll around in your bed of extra cash, because, despite your artificially inflated salary, no one gives a damn about you anymore.

Linkage

Friday, September 9, 2011

NFL picks: Week one: The return of the NFL

Here we go again. The column often considers the week before the first NFL games of the season to be one of the finest, most enjoyable of sporting weeks. For that week, pre-kickoff, your favourite team can win the Superbowl. Your favourite Quarterback is primed for a juicy season stats wise. Your fantasy football team looks beyond awesome on paper, and you, as yet, haven't lost a penny betting on the NFL. Life is beautiful. Then of course, the season starts, and, this happens...

Atlanta @ Chicago
Popular opinion is forming, swelling, loading up behind Matty Ice and the Falcons. If Popular Opinion was something we should take note of, there would be no such thing as bookmakers, as they would all be broke. Huge, gigantic over reaction to the Bears unfortunate demise last season. A fit, healthy Jay Cutler and a fit, healthy Matt Forte in front of their vociferous home fans can stay within a field goal of an admittedly exciting looking Falcons team. Just remember, it was the Bears that won the NFC North last season. Tough one to 'lump into' because it should be tight, maybe have a little pop at the total points, sit back and enjoy the potential fireworks.
The pick: Chicago +2.5

Buffalo @ Kansas
The venerable Admiral Ackbar, upon coming out of hyperspace and noticing the Imperial Star Destroyers massed around the Death Star, famously exclaimed 'It's a trap!'. Well, those 6.5 points the Bills are getting? It's a trap! Take the points, and sigh a huge sigh of relief as the Bills muddle their way to losing to a rusty Kansas team by a handful of points, and you look all smart and stuff.
The pick: Buffalo +6.5

Cincinnati @ Cleveland
The signs are not good in this one for The Bungles. First off, their nickname is, The Bungles. This does not inspire confidence. Further to this, they will be starting a (presumably) trembling rookie (Andy Dalton) on the road, against an opponent that is starting to look like a real NFL team. They have something approaching a plan. They have a hard running RB and a very decent QB (Colt McCoy) and they are playing solid defence also. Hard to see anything but a serious beat down here.
The pick: Cleveland -4.5

Detroit @ Tampa
Step aside all other underdogs, here come the Lions! The potentially explosive trio of Stafford, Johnson and Best are healthy and ready for action. Tampa are no slouches themselves, but Detroit feel like the right pick here. Remember, the Lions rolled into Tampa last season and knocked their hosts over. This Column foresees a repeat. Take the field-goal-plus and enjoy.
The pick: Detroit +3.5

Tennessee @ Jacksonville
Wait a second, the bookies are giving a rejuvenated Chris Johnson and savvy, veteran QB Matt Haselbeck +3.5 points against a team they have handled easily enough the last few seasons, who also just jettisoned their starting QB just before the season started? Really? This isn't some kind of elaborate joke? How fast can you get a bet on Tennessee with those tasty +3.5 points?
The pick: Tennessee +3.5

Indianapolis @ Houston
Houston, we have a problem. This game is shorn of two superior talents in Manning and Foster, and will be all the less enjoyable because of same. The Colts will put up an honourable fight but Houston, at home, with a genuine star QB at the helm, will prove too much.
The pick: Houston -2.5

Philadelphia @ St Louis
So, everybody remembers how Michael Vick 'set the world alight' in his first go-round in Atlanta, before opposition defensive coordinators figured out how to contain him, and he started to, you know, suck? Look, you should probably seek advice on this one somewhere else, because as a dog lover, this column is never, ever going to give Vick a break. Ever. Logically though, this seems like a lot of points for a decent, up and coming side, at home, with a very decent QB (Bradford) throwing to some good weapons, and former Patriots whizz kid Josh McDaniels calling the plays on offence. Take the points, crack open a beer and pet your dog.
The pick: St Louis +5.5

Pittsburgh @ Baltimore
Alright Ravens, I am giving you one more chance! Baltimore has never had a better opportunity to handle the Steelers. At home, with new WR Lee Evans streaking down the sidelines. The Ravens have to make a statement here, and they know it. Baltimore must have this game.
The pick: Baltimore -2.5

Minnesota @ San Diego
Cue Admiral Ackbar again, 'It's a trap!' Come on now, seriously? 8.5 points in a season opener, against Adrian Peterson, Percy Harvin and Donovan McNabb? Way, way too many points. It's a trap!
The pick: Minnesota +8.5

New York Giants @ Washington
Put the kids to bed early this could be a nasty defensive slug fest. Washington can't get into a high scoring shootout, so will opt to slam the rock on the ground with little Timmy Hightower leading the way. The Giants have decided to run an offence with basically no decent wide outs and a QB that carries a constant 'deer in the headlights' look about him. Manning is going to miss Smith and TE Boss, now who is he going to throw-the-ball-up-in-the-air-while-ducking to? Close, ugly game potentially, so take the home dog points on offer, and then go watch something else.
The pick: Washington +3.5

Carolina @ Arizona
Lately it is not often Arizona are favoured by almost a TD. The oddsmakers have overlooked Carolina's potentially punishing running game. Stewart and Williams, both healthy and ready to go, will take a lot of heat off of rookie QB Cam Newton. The big play maker can then relax and play his game, knowing he is going to have the safety net of handing the rock off to his big bruisers. Arizona can't be over looked, they will be decent in '11, however this is too many points to resist. It's a trap, kind of.
The pick: Carolina + 5.5

Seattle @ San Francisco
Alex Smith's career record? 19-31. Everyone knows Seattle made the playoffs last season, right? Take the points, and go read a book or something,
The pick: Seattle +5.5

Dallas @ New York Jets
The combination of Austin, Bryant and Witten gives Tony Romo plenty to throw at, while Felix Jones surely has to start showing the consistency to go with his undoubted talent. Rex Ryan can throw all the pathetic temper tantrums he wants, but eventually teams are going to stop being afraid of the wildly over rated, one dimensional Jets. No amount of bluster can hide the fact the Jets are a one trick pony. Dallas, on the other hand, have plenty of tricks they can pull.
The pick: Dallas + 4.5

New England at Miami
Miami, at home, will no doubt put up a good fight in the first half, but expect New England to pull away with just too many offensive weapons available to Tom Brady. I suppose we need to sit down and talk about this latest embarrassing shoe commercial, huh?

One thing you can say, from a positive perspective, is that Brady does appear to have his nimble foot-work back, post surgery the season before last. I mean, look at him dance around in those comfortable looking shoes. Looks like he is ready to bounce around the pocket while looking for open wide outs, right?

Questions remain however as to why he is seen running around The City looking vaguely confused. Answers on a postcard, I guess
The pick: New England -5.5

Oakland @ Denver
All sorts of worrying signs for Denver going into this one. They appear to be at least three or four steps behind Oakland in the rebuilding process. Remember, Oakland absolutely annihilated them last season. Oakland have reinforced things in the off season, and are ready to move one more baby step in the right direction. Too many questions still surround Denver.
The pick: Oakland - 0.5

Linkage