Showing posts with label Gambling. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Gambling. Show all posts

Wednesday, January 2, 2013

The Los Angeles Clippers demand your attention!

Every now and then this column likes to usher it's loyal readers in the direction of 'can't miss' value in terms of who's going to win what in the glorious little World of sports we all love so much. This is one of those times. The NBA is shaping up nicely for 2013, with basically six teams separating themselves from the pack and announcing their intentions to win the title. The Heat are winning games seemingly without breaking sweat, although they are under enough pressure that Dwayne Wade has started kicking opponents in the groin. Oklahoma look good again, as does anyone who has Kevin Durant in their squad, while the Lakers, Knicks and Spurs are obviously also contenders to some degree.

The LA Clippers however provide perhaps the most fascinating value to punters looking to get in on the NBA title or just Western title action. Now, let's print a Blake Griffin sized disclaimer here, we're not saying 'The Clippers will definitely win the NBA title' - what we are saying is, they represent serious value to do same!

The Clippers just tick a lot more boxes than many of those ahead of them in the current NBA betting. Form? Yes Sir, the Clippers are in seriously good form. They are just finished a 17 game winning streak where they routinely pounded the opposition into the court. With a winning percentage of .781 they are just behind Oklahoma and ahead of everyone else in terms of pure wins.

 The Clippers 17 game win streak

Statistically the Clippers are in fine shape. They rank 4th in the NBA in scoring while also ranking 7th overall in terms of giving up buckets, which is a nice balance. What this column loves about them most is they are 3rd in the NBA in assists, which means they are sharing the rock around, and, as we all know, sharing is caring!

They are young as a team, far younger than, for example, the Lakers, who Kob Bryant just called 'old' (no, seriously, he did). Their superstars are mostly all very young, including perhaps the brightest star, Blake Griffin. They are also, to date, healthy, unlike some of the other squads that are already breaking down through injury. Youth would stand well to them as the playoffs approach and the stamina of NBA players is tested.

Finally, the Clippers represent serious value.

For whatever reason, their form, talent and youth have not attracted the attention of the Vegas wise guys as yet, by and large. You can get the Clippers to win the NBA at 10/1 and to win the West at 5/1 still. Put that up against, for example, the Lakers, who are currently an obscenely poor value at 7/1, and you see what we are getting at.

Look, the Clippers are a young, talented and progressive sort, and right now the bookmakers haven't adjusted fully to them as yet. The 10/1 to win the NBA and the 5/1 to win the West represent super value to anyone that way inclined.

Grab either or indeed both, drop $5 of your hard earned wages on them and enjoy play like this, as you ride the value hopefully all the way to the title and the bank.



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Wednesday, September 12, 2012

NFL week two picks

Just like that, NFL week two is upon us. This new ‘game every Thursday’ gimmick means that basically the NFL is never, ever going to be more than a couple of seconds outside of our collective awareness. If that was the NFL’s plan all along, well played, Sirs. Tuesday everyone is talking about the Monday night game(s) and Wednesday, it’s time to preview the Thursday night game. Friday? Time to review the weekend games! Basically the NFL is now with us on a 24 hour basis. Is this good? Is this bad? Who know, and who cares, all I know is I went 8-8 against the spread last week, with my three top picks (Patriots, Dallas and Arizona) all winners. Now, about that week two…

Season to date
  • Last week against the spread: 8-8
  • Overall record against the spread: 8-8
  • Winning percentage: 50%
  • The finest four percentage: 100%

The finest four. 
Four picks to boost your bankroll


The Game:  Oakland Raiders at Miami Dolphins
Current line: Oakland -1
The Science:  The Dolphins created a huge issue for themselves by starting Ryan Tannerhill last week, basically, they have to give him another chance this week. Carson Palmer and Darren McFadden are frothing at the mouth for a chance to get at that pitiful Miami defence, while the Raiders should have their way with poor Tannerhill.
The Score:  Oakland 35 Miami 17
The Pick:  Oakland -1

The Game:  Arizona Cardinals at New England Patriots
Current line:  New England -13.5
The Science: There is a reason for that relatively big line this early in the season. Something special is brewing in New England. The Patriots barely broke a sweat last week and hammered the home town Titans easily. On top of that, Arizona face a long trip for this game and have traditionally really struggled against the Patriots. Brady and his bevvy of passing options are a tough proposition for anyone, but add to that the effective running of RB Steven Ridley, and the talented, young, enthusiastic defence, and this score could get ugly early.
The Score:  Arizona 16 New England 38
The Pick:  New England -13.5

The Game: Dallas Cowboys at Seattle Seahawks
Current line:  Dallas -3
The Science:  For another while yet, Dallas will continue to look like Superbowl possibilities. Way too early for their annual collapse as yet. Seattle? Me thinks some have over rated rookie QB Russell Wilson.
The Score: Dallas 35 Seattle 24
The Pick: Dallas -3


The Game:  Tennessee Titans at San Diego Chargers
Current line:  San Diego -6
The Science:  At first glance that line looks hefty. Then you remember the Titans were basically murdered by a somewhat rusty Patriots last week. Then you remember San Diego looked pretty damn good on the road at Oakland. Then you remember Chris Johnson carrying for 11 yards. Then you remember Jake ‘Hurt’ Locker is, well, hurt. Then you know exactly what to do.
The Score:  Tennessee 16 San Diego 32
The Pick:  San Diego -6

The best of the rest. 
Have fun with these, but don’t put the house on them


The Game:  Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers
Current line:  Green Bay -6
The Science:  Let’s ask Bears receiver Brandon Marshall how he feels about this Thursday night matchup: ‘’ "I'm 6-5 (listed at 6-foot-4), 230, and there aren't too many DBs walking around that big. "If they want to get physical, I do welcome that.’’ Mr Marshall touches on a subject that Green Bay fans have to be concerned about, the Packers defence, in particular their secondary, stank worse than some fine Wisconsin cheese against San Francisco in week one. Meanwhile, General Cutler has everything he needs, Marshall, Matt Forte and a stable of big, fast receivers, to really attack the Green Bay backfield. Aaron Rodgers will of course collect points, as always, my feeling is the Bears just might make the bigger plays on both sides of the ball.
The Score:  Chicago 30 Green Bay 27
The Pick: Chicago +6



The Game: Minnesota Vikings at Indianapolis Colts
Current line: Indianapolis -1
The Science:  Andrew Luck was anything but lucky last week, he was exceptionally accurate in his first NFL start, however his receivers did him absolutely no favours, dropping passes for fun. Luck played far better than the stats show, as did the Colts in general. Meanwhile the Vikings barely beat what could be a pretty bad Jacksonville team. Adrian Peterson played his heart out, but at what cost, on those balky knees?
The Score: Minnesota 20 Indianapolis 24
The Pick: Indianapolis -1

The Game: Tamps Buccaneers at New York Giants
Current line:  New York -9
The Science: Worship not Yee false Gods! The NYG are false Gods, and we should not be worshipping them with minus 9 points! Was anyone watching week one?! Tampa are back to their scrappy, feisty selves, whilst the Giants are nowhere near 9 point favourites.
The Score:  Tampa 23 New York 27
The Pick:  Tampa +9



The Game:  Baltimore Ravens at Philadelphia Eagles
Current line: Philadelphia -1
The Science: The Eagles struggled to beat the brutal Browns, and lost wide out Jeremy Maclin in the process. The Ravens announced themselves as potential Superbowl Champions. That’s all you need really on this one.
The Score:  Baltimore 30 Philadelphia 26
The Pick:  Baltimore +1

The Game: Washington Redskins at St Louis Rams
Current line:  Washington -3
The Science: It didn’t take long for RG3 to become a road favourite, by 3 points here. The thing is, the Rams were only close to Detroit last week because Mathew Stafford handed them the ball three times. If RG3 plays even 70% as well as he did against New Orleans, the ‘Skins should be able to beat a pretty weak Rams side.
The Score:  Washington 27 St Louis 23
The Pick: Washington -3

The Game:  Denver Broncos at Atlanta Falcons
Current line: Atlanta -3
The Science: A win over Pittsburgh is still more impressive than a win over Kansas. Peyton Manning is pretty comfortable indoors, also.
The Score:  Denver 30 Atlanta 27
The Pick:  Denver +3



The rest. 
Definitely. Probably. Maybe.


The Game:  Kansas Chiefs at Buffalo Bills
Current line:  Buffalo -3.5
The Science: Wait a second, the Bills are giving points after last week, and with Fragile Freddie Jackson out with an injury? Seriously? The Chiefs were beaten up too, but come in healthier. They showed distinct signs of life in their beat-down, Buffalo? Not so much.
The Score:  Kansas 24 Buffalo 20
The Pick:  Kansas +3.5

The Game:  Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals
Current line: Cincinnati -7
The Science:  Ah yes, those Brilliant Bengals! As Borat would say, ‘Not!’. Bengals minus a touchdown? Seriously? Look, at home, against a team as offensively putrid as the Brownies, yes, The Bungles should win, however that’s too many points. I fully expect a valiant Browns effort, particularly on ‘D’, only to come up short at the end.
The Score:  Cleveland 17 Cincinnati 20
The Pick:  Cleveland +7

The Game: New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers
Current line:  New Orleans -2.5
The Science:  Last week the Saints were eviscerated by Luke Skywalker. This coming weekend they get to be ripped apart again, this time by Yoda. RG3 had his way with the Saints pitiful defence, and Cam Newton, at home, after a close, bitter road loss, should be able to basically top what RG3 did. There are serious warning signs the Saints will struggle without leadership. Carolina? Just a tough road loss. They can bounce back. New Orleans? Who knows. Doesn’t look good, though.
The Score:  New Orleans 26 Carolina 33
The Pick:  Carolina +2.5

The Game: Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars
Current line:  Houston -9
The Science: This is not the Miami Dolphins. The Jags are an organised NFL team with a couple of decent parts. Houston might win, but it should not be Miami all over again.
The Score:  Houston 24 Jacksonville 23
The Pick:  Jacksonville +9



The Game: New York Jets at Pittsburgh Steelers
Current line: Pittsburgh -6
The Science: Too. Many. Points. The Steelers did not get healthy since last week! They have all sorts of injury problems. Meanwhile, the Jets are feeling pretty invincible right now. The relative shock of the week on the cards here.
The Score:  New York 23 Pittsburgh 20
The Pick:  New York +6

The Game: Detroit Lions at San Francisco 49ers
Current line:  Detroit +6.5
The Science: The Sports Karma Gods have been waiting for this one for a while. If you recall, Jim Harbaugh acted like a total Douchebag after his team beat Detroit last season, Trust me, the Sports Karma Gods do not look kindly on that kind of thing. Revenge time for the Lions.
The Score:  Detroit 27 San Francisco 20
The Pick:  Detroit +6.5








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Monday, August 27, 2012

The L.A. Dodgers represent great World Series value at 12/1

In case you were hidden under a rock, buried deep in episodes of The Kardashians or blinded by endless naked Prince Harry pictures, you should probably know that sometime between Friday and Saturday the Red Sox and the L.A. Dodgers pulled off probably the biggest single trade in MLB history. The Dodgers gave up a group of prospects (including the wonderfully named Rubby De La Rosa) whilst in return Boston shipped off Adrian Gonalez, Josh Beckett, Carl Crawford and (don’t forget!) Nick Punto. A simply stunning trade in its sheer magnitude, particularly the incredible $260 odd million dollars of salary The Red Sox West Dodgers are committing to by taking on those high priced veterans.

Boston’s media and fan-base are literally reeling from the shock, the former have nothing to write about anymore, and the latter simply stunned this is happening. Perhaps conditioned by weeks, nay, months of negative Front Office bashing by The Knights Of The Keyboard (as Teddy Ballgame sardonically called Boston’s sports media), Red Sox fans were under the impression the Front Office at Fenway Park had no clue how to run a Major League ball-club. As it turns out, their timing was absolutely impeccable and they have managed to not only drop those $260 million in wages, they have also changed the club-house attitude completely. There is still some work to do, obviously, however right now the future looks definitely brighter and clearer for the Red Sox. The fans are delighted by and large, the media, well, they are a little stunned.



Meanwhile, flying somewhat under the radar, are the Dodgers. The L.A. Dodgers have gone from something of an after-thought to a legitimate World Series contender in a very short space of time. Magic Johnson and his co-owners have signaled their aggressive intent with the Hanley Ramirez pickup, they have now literally engaged afterburners and left many an opponent in their wake with the arrival of Beckett and most of all Gonzalez. The Dodgers line-up, already awesome, is now a veritable Murderers Row for opponent pitchers, who are basically going to have nightmares every night before taking on this lot. Consider, for a second, the core of the Dodgers lineup on a nightly basis. Kemp\Ethier\Ramirez\Gonzalez is a simply scintillating three through six, perhaps superior to anything else in baseball, NL and or AL. Seriously, look at those names, and imagine for a second being a middle level pitcher trying to navigate their way through those four, back to back to back to back. Then throw in pesky leadoff guy Shane Victorino and other parts like Nick Punto, and you can understand the ferocious, other-worldly potential of this Dodgers lineup.

Of course with the addition of Josh Beckett the Dodgers have also upgraded their pitching staff. Beckett will provide experience, depth, and, for my money anyway, wins. He did not turn into a bad pitcher overnight. He can still bring a fastball, and still has a burning desire to win every single battle with every single batter. Beckett is going to love pitching in the wide open expanses of Dodger Stadium, which make Fenway Park look roughly the same size as a tiny little panic room. There are going to be a lot of fly balls to left and center in particular that turn into outs for Beckett, reducing his ERA, his WHIP and his stress levels.

Say what you want about Beckett, he tells it like it is, and has been brutally honest about his own performance when asked about it on the Left Coast. Take these comments for example;

“I’m as big a part of that as anybody. That’s not what they wanted to do. They wanted Adrian to stay. They wanted me to stay. They wanted Nick [Punto] to stay. They wanted Carl [Crawford] to stay. We just didn’t do our jobs.”

He is clearly invigorated and ready to, frankly, be awesome again. Beckett was a huge fan favourite in Boston just two seasons ago. It all fell apart in a short space of time, but the good people of L.A. will probably end up loving the big Texan, particularly if he puts up a few wins for them between now and the World Series.




Speaking of the latter, our overall point is that right now is the time to get on board the Dodgers bandwagon. A few weeks ago the Dodgers were as high as 25/1 to win the World Series. With the addition of Hanley Ramirez, they moved in to 20/1, and now suddenly with the big trade there has been a further market adjustment, all the way in to 12/1 or 14/1 with some establishments.

For me, this adjustment still is not big enough. You are telling me that 12/1 isn’t incredible value for a deep pitching staff, a good bullpen and a simply superb, out of this world lineup? We’re talking value here. We aren’t suggesting for a second that the Dodgers are 100% locks for the trophy, however you cannot deny that at 12/1 they represent superior value, considering the sheer talent of the pieces they have added recently.

The Dodgers are building something special for the short term. The bookmakers have not fully adjusted as yet. Find a way to get on the bandwagon, and enjoy the ride.



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Friday, September 16, 2011

NFL Picks: Week two: The sophmore slump


The curse of having a 'good week' at the coalface that is NFL picks is, the only way is down. Way down. This columns went 11-4 against the spread last week, and that should have been an enjoyable achievement, instead it is weighing this column down, an albatross around its neck. How can we go 11-4 again? So much expectation! The only answer is, success is depressing. Mediocrity is the obvious way forward. Here's to a nice, Toronto Blue Jays, Ryan Reynolds, Stoke City, 'average' kind of week, a nice 8-8 week.

Last weeks totals against the spread - 11-4
Running total - 11-4

On to the picks.

Oakland @ Buffalo -3.5
The theme of week two from a gambling perspective is undoubtedly ‘over-reaction’. When was the last time Buffalo were -3.5 against anyone? Was Jim Kelly at the helm? Buffalo have a whiff of friskiness about them, but you would have to argue, did they turn into World beaters over night? Should we suddenly be considering the 1000/1 Superbowl odds on the back of one win against a very erratic Kansas side? Backing Buffalo does not pass the million dollar test. That is, if someone handed you a million dollars and told you to place a single bet on this game, you would only have one ‘safe’ option, right?
The Pick: Oakland +3.5

Chicago @ New Orleans -7.5
So I guess we are continuing to ignore the fact that Chicago actually won the NFC North last season? It is incredible how the sporting media can affect the general consensus on a given team. There is no way the Bears are more than a touchdown underdogs to New Orleans. Not right now. Everyone is aware the Saints top two wide outs are probably out of this game, right? Maybe at their peak the Saints would be ‘that’ scary, but not right now. A more realistic handicap would have been -3 or maybe even -4.5, but over a touchdown? Really? Take the points and watch the Bears keep it close.
The Pick: Chicago +7.5

Cleveland @ Indianapolis +2.5
More market over-reaction. The Colts will be more prepared, Kerry Collins will have had another week to get his house in order, the Colts will be pumping crowd noise in like nobody’s business, and Cleveland are still reeling from losing badly to the Bengals last week. Just a feeling, but take the few points on offer in what should be a close one, and side with the slightly more desperate of the two. Not often you get a home dog with as many quality players (Freeney, Garcon, Collie, Clarke) as the Colts have.
The Pick: Indianapolis +2.5



Kansas @ Detroit -8.5
You know at first This Column balked at the sight of that gaudy looking handicap. However, then we considered the game more closely. Detroit are on a serious upswing. Kansas are in complete disarray. Detroit won a tough road game against another up and coming team with a potentially great QB (Tampa/Josh Freeman) while Kansas were completely humiliated by one of last season’s worst sides (Buffalo). Detroit have a veritable tone of momentum going into this one, and frankly nothing bar the reverse lock theory can save Kansas. The Lions score early and often and questions start getting asked in Kansas.
The Pick: Detroit -8.5

Green Bay @ Carolina +10.5
What on earth is going on here? Is this the run in to the playoffs, are Carolina already out of it and are Green Bay playing for their lives? How on earth are we already dishing out double figure handicaps?! Everyone saw Cam Newton play last week, right? Once again, Carolina go into a game with two dynamic running backs and a sense that they have nothing to lose. Their explosive rookie QB was the toast of the NFL last weekend, yet the bookies don't appear to be anywhere near impressed by his strong opening showing. Admittedly the Packers are a fine unit, and torched the Saints, but they had their own home crowd and that particular opening night momentum behind them. Carolina get that on Sunday, and can ride that and the youthful exuberance of Cam Newton to, well, to within 10 points anyway!
The Pick: Carolina +10.5

Baltimore @ Tennessee +5.5
Oh those saucy Ravens! Such a tease. That was an overwhelming showing against the bemused looking Steelers last week. Everything on both ends of the ball went right for Baltimore. More often than not, unless you are the 2007 Patriots, perfection is not the norm within the confines of the NFL. Meanwhile, Tennessee continue to search for an identity. Chris Johnson continues to attempt to get going. A home opener and a sense of urgency point to Tennessee keeping this close.
The Pick: Tennessee +5.5

Tampa @ Minnesota -3.5
Tampa ran into the exploding star of momentum that is the Lions. Let's just say the Vikings do not quite represent that much potential energy. Josh Freeman gets his 2011 season going by leading the Buccs to a show road win against a Vikings team looking for an identity amongst so much change.
The Pick: Tampa +3.5

Jacksonville @ New York Jets -10.5
Oh right, I thought it was the completely and utterly ringless New York Jets, but according to those 10.5 points in the handicap this is the '85 freakin Bears. C'mon man! Hey, there's no doubt the Jets are a decent ball club and etc and etc, however Jacksonville know what they have to do, which is namely ram the bowling ball that is Maurice Jones Drew into the line 35-40 times and pray he comes out the other end for 120-130 yards. This clown thinks he does.
The Pick: Jacksonville +10.5



Arizona @ Washington -4.5
That was a fantastic opening from the 'Skins, who look younger, hungrier and more, well, more 'into' the whole thing. Washington won all the little battles against a wildly over matched Giants team. Arizona meanwhile had a nice little opener to themselves. Beanie Wells stayed on the field for an entire game, a miracle in itself, and Kevin Kolb looked like the real deal. A major red flag however is 'Zona's horrific road results the last few seasons. Add to the the fact that Wells could hobble off the gridiron at any time, and you find yourself grunting, and saying ''Well, maybe Washington are the pick!''
The Pick: Washington -4.5

Seattle @ Pittsburgh -14.5
Okay now this one wide margin handicap I actually understand. Seattle are a complete mess. In almost every element of the game. The Steelers are licking their wounds, and have to come out flying to bring their home crowd back in on the deal. Seattle could be in for a royal hiding here.
The Pick: Pittsburgh -14.5

Dallas @ San Francisco -2.5
Good for Alex Smith. Now he's only the eleven games under .500 for his NFL career. The Cowboys looked pretty feisty last week in New York, and have the tools and skills to beat the Niners, even on the road.
The Pick: Dallas +2.5

Cincinnati @ Denver -5.5
When This Column first saw this line, jaw dropping did follow. While Denver are busy losing at home to Oakland and spending the rest of the week ripping themselves apart from the inside with one of the more head scratching QB controversies of all time, The Bungles were busy proving themselves to be in possession of, you know, heart. If they keep this up, The Bungles will be a term of endearment, rather than one of derision.
The Pick: The Bengals +5.5

Houston @ Miami +2.5
What's the over for this one? Anything below ninety is still tasty. Miami have jettisoned their running game in favour of slinging the ball round the park like one of those 50-60 pass attempt Bledsoe led Patriot teams of the nineties. Meanwhile Houston kicked the dog that is the Colts while it was down last week, piling on the points like a big bully. We could easily see eighty points combined here.
The Pick: Houston -2.5

San Diego @ New England -6.5
Gosh imagine that! San Diego struggling to cover an early season whopper of a handicap last week? We all know the script when it comes to the Chargers. Start slow, come on strong, evaporate when the playoffs start. They do it every single season, they are as predictable as the seasons. Or at least, as predictable as the seasons were, you know, a decade ago. Meanwhile, The Brady Bunch look like they have decided to dust off the old 2007 playbook and let loose the old passing game. How on earth are teams going to cover not one but two incredible Tight Ends? And by the way, remember, you heard it hear first, Hernandegronk is a beast. With Welker and Branch catching everything thrown within ten feet of them, and Ochocinco, eh, providing a distraction, it is a nightmare for any defensive coordinator to rein in the Patriots. The obvious answer would appear to be, get after Brady, but the Patriots offensive line is good enough to give him enough time to pick apart any Blitzing defence. It is early, but the Patriots look really, really good.
The Pick: The Patriots and Hernandegronk -6.5

Hernandegronk

Philadelphia @ Atlanta +2.5
Interesting smoke and mirrors for these two last week. While the Eagles had their way with a injury riddled Rams, the Falcons had to endure a bit of a bashing at the hands of the Bears. The same Bears who won the NFC North last season. And the same Bears who were enjoying the momentum of their home opener. This week, the market correction will apply itself, and the Falcons and their bevy of brilliant receivers, will cause the Eagles more headaches than expected.
The Pick: Atlanta +2.5

St Louis @ New York Giants -6.5
No Steven Jackson? You want to say 'No problem', however, the fact of the matter is the Rams relied heavily on Jackson last season, he often single handedly kept them in games. Without him there's no need to stack the line. The Giants can pin their ears back and go after Bradford. The Giants do not look like world beaters, however the home opener factor, combined with a tinge of desperation after losing last week, should provide enough impetus to whitewash a badly bruised Rams team that's going to have to get healthy to realise its promise.
The Pick: The Giants -6.5

Good luck all ya'll.



Feel free to copy and paste the below into the comments section to do your own picks!
Week 2
Oakland @ Buffalo -3.5
Chicago @ New Orleans -7.5
Cleveland @ Indianapolis +2.5
Kansas @ Detroit -8.5
Green Bay @ Carolina +10.5
Baltimore @ Tennessee +5.5
Tampa @ Minnesota -3.5
Jacksonville @ New York Jets -10.5
Arizona @ Washington -4.5
Seattle @ Pittsburgh -14.5
Dallas @ San Francisco -2.5
Cincinnati @ Denver -5.5
Houston @ Miami +2.5
San Diego @ New England -6.5
Philadelphia @ Atlanta +2.5
St Louis @ New York Giants -6.5



Linkage

Comments

Comments welcome! Free and open debate and communication are some of the most enjoyable aspects of life. Please leave a comment, disagreements welcome! If you disagree, debate your case by all means. However, anything rude, spiteful or any cowardly anonymous personal attacks will be not be tolerated and will be deleted.

Friday, September 9, 2011

NFL picks: Week one: The return of the NFL


Here we go again. The column often considers the week before the first NFL games of the season to be one of the finest, most enjoyable of sporting weeks. For that week, pre-kickoff, your favourite team can win the Superbowl. Your favourite Quarterback is primed for a juicy season stats wise. Your fantasy football team looks beyond awesome on paper, and you, as yet, haven't lost a penny betting on the NFL. Life is beautiful. Then of course, the season starts, and, this happens...

Atlanta @ Chicago
Popular opinion is forming, swelling, loading up behind Matty Ice and the Falcons. If Popular Opinion was something we should take note of, there would be no such thing as bookmakers, as they would all be broke. Huge, gigantic over reaction to the Bears unfortunate demise last season. A fit, healthy Jay Cutler and a fit, healthy Matt Forte in front of their vociferous home fans can stay within a field goal of an admittedly exciting looking Falcons team. Just remember, it was the Bears that won the NFC North last season. Tough one to 'lump into' because it should be tight, maybe have a little pop at the total points, sit back and enjoy the potential fireworks.
The pick: Chicago +2.5

Buffalo @ Kansas
The venerable Admiral Ackbar, upon coming out of hyperspace and noticing the Imperial Star Destroyers massed around the Death Star, famously exclaimed 'It's a trap!'. Well, those 6.5 points the Bills are getting? It's a trap! Take the points, and sigh a huge sigh of relief as the Bills muddle their way to losing to a rusty Kansas team by a handful of points, and you look all smart and stuff.
The pick: Buffalo +6.5



Cincinnati @ Cleveland
The signs are not good in this one for The Bungles. First off, their nickname is, The Bungles. This does not inspire confidence. Further to this, they will be starting a (presumably) trembling rookie (Andy Dalton) on the road, against an opponent that is starting to look like a real NFL team. They have something approaching a plan. They have a hard running RB and a very decent QB (Colt McCoy) and they are playing solid defence also. Hard to see anything but a serious beat down here.
The pick: Cleveland -4.5

Detroit @ Tampa
Step aside all other underdogs, here come the Lions! The potentially explosive trio of Stafford, Johnson and Best are healthy and ready for action. Tampa are no slouches themselves, but Detroit feel like the right pick here. Remember, the Lions rolled into Tampa last season and knocked their hosts over. This Column foresees a repeat. Take the field-goal-plus and enjoy.
The pick: Detroit +3.5

Tennessee @ Jacksonville
Wait a second, the bookies are giving a rejuvenated Chris Johnson and savvy, veteran QB Matt Haselbeck +3.5 points against a team they have handled easily enough the last few seasons, who also just jettisoned their starting QB just before the season started? Really? This isn't some kind of elaborate joke? How fast can you get a bet on Tennessee with those tasty +3.5 points?
The pick: Tennessee +3.5

Indianapolis @ Houston
Houston, we have a problem. This game is shorn of two superior talents in Manning and Foster, and will be all the less enjoyable because of same. The Colts will put up an honourable fight but Houston, at home, with a genuine star QB at the helm, will prove too much.
The pick: Houston -2.5

Philadelphia @ St Louis
So, everybody remembers how Michael Vick 'set the world alight' in his first go-round in Atlanta, before opposition defensive coordinators figured out how to contain him, and he started to, you know, suck? Look, you should probably seek advice on this one somewhere else, because as a dog lover, this column is never, ever going to give Vick a break. Ever. Logically though, this seems like a lot of points for a decent, up and coming side, at home, with a very decent QB (Bradford) throwing to some good weapons, and former Patriots whizz kid Josh McDaniels calling the plays on offence. Take the points, crack open a beer and pet your dog.
The pick: St Louis +5.5

Pittsburgh @ Baltimore
Alright Ravens, I am giving you one more chance! Baltimore has never had a better opportunity to handle the Steelers. At home, with new WR Lee Evans streaking down the sidelines. The Ravens have to make a statement here, and they know it. Baltimore must have this game.
The pick: Baltimore -2.5

Minnesota @ San Diego
Cue Admiral Ackbar again, 'It's a trap!' Come on now, seriously? 8.5 points in a season opener, against Adrian Peterson, Percy Harvin and Donovan McNabb? Way, way too many points. It's a trap!
The pick: Minnesota +8.5

New York Giants @ Washington
Put the kids to bed early this could be a nasty defensive slug fest. Washington can't get into a high scoring shootout, so will opt to slam the rock on the ground with little Timmy Hightower leading the way. The Giants have decided to run an offence with basically no decent wide outs and a QB that carries a constant 'deer in the headlights' look about him. Manning is going to miss Smith and TE Boss, now who is he going to throw-the-ball-up-in-the-air-while-ducking to? Close, ugly game potentially, so take the home dog points on offer, and then go watch something else.
The pick: Washington +3.5

Carolina @ Arizona
Lately it is not often Arizona are favoured by almost a TD. The oddsmakers have overlooked Carolina's potentially punishing running game. Stewart and Williams, both healthy and ready to go, will take a lot of heat off of rookie QB Cam Newton. The big play maker can then relax and play his game, knowing he is going to have the safety net of handing the rock off to his big bruisers. Arizona can't be over looked, they will be decent in '11, however this is too many points to resist. It's a trap, kind of.
The pick: Carolina + 5.5

Seattle @ San Francisco
Alex Smith's career record? 19-31. Everyone knows Seattle made the playoffs last season, right? Take the points, and go read a book or something,
The pick: Seattle +5.5

Dallas @ New York Jets
The combination of Austin, Bryant and Witten gives Tony Romo plenty to throw at, while Felix Jones surely has to start showing the consistency to go with his undoubted talent. Rex Ryan can throw all the pathetic temper tantrums he wants, but eventually teams are going to stop being afraid of the wildly over rated, one dimensional Jets. No amount of bluster can hide the fact the Jets are a one trick pony. Dallas, on the other hand, have plenty of tricks they can pull.
The pick: Dallas + 4.5

New England at Miami
Miami, at home, will no doubt put up a good fight in the first half, but expect New England to pull away with just too many offensive weapons available to Tom Brady. I suppose we need to sit down and talk about this latest embarrassing shoe commercial, huh?



One thing you can say, from a positive perspective, is that Brady does appear to have his nimble foot-work back, post surgery the season before last. I mean, look at him dance around in those comfortable looking shoes. Looks like he is ready to bounce around the pocket while looking for open wide outs, right?

Questions remain however as to why he is seen running around The City looking vaguely confused. Answers on a postcard, I guess
The pick: New England -5.5

Oakland @ Denver
All sorts of worrying signs for Denver going into this one. They appear to be at least three or four steps behind Oakland in the rebuilding process. Remember, Oakland absolutely annihilated them last season. Oakland have reinforced things in the off season, and are ready to move one more baby step in the right direction. Too many questions still surround Denver.
The pick: Oakland - 0.5




Linkage



Comments

Comments welcome! Free and open debate and communication are some of the most enjoyable aspects of life. Please leave a comment, disagreements welcome! If you disagree, debate your case by all means. However, anything rude, spiteful or any cowardly anonymous personal attacks will be not be tolerated and will be deleted.

Thursday, July 21, 2011

Bill Frist, the downfall of online poker and jobs being lost in Dublin and the rest of the World.


Ever ask yourself ‘Why?’ Ever consider quietly to yourself, ‘I wonder why did the Feds shut down all the US Online poker sites on April 15th past?’

When you sit back and think about all the elements that make up the US Government’s recent crusade against online gambling, what sticks out most is the giant elephant in the room. Vegas, and all things connected to same. How is Vegas such an untouchable entity, while competing online poker sites are being toppled like a house of cards as we speak? On top of that, further questions (little baby elephants) include; Why is it an NFL rule that teams provide detailed injury reports the Friday before a game? Why does ESPN print the lines of all games, college and professional? Why can people spend their money on state lotteries without fear of breaking the law? Why can those things happen, but online poker is being 'smoked out'?

First things first, a quick disclaimer. This column has no interest in defending the interests of ‘Big Money’, in any field, including online poker. However, if you don’t understand that literally thousands of people are going to lose millions of dollars and their jobs in this disaster, you have your head buried deeper in the sand than those that think this US Government crusade is solely against ‘the evils of gambling’.

Close to 700 of those people who are in danger of losing their jobs, for example, are in Dublin. Pocket Kings, based in Loughlinstown, provides IT and other services to the Internet poker site, Full Tilt Poker. The latter is in limbo at the moment, hammered on all sides by legislation stemming from the US Governments actions in 2007 and on April 15th, ‘Black Friday’, earlier this year.

Taking a step back, what exactly is going on?

On October 13, 2006 the US Government basically declared war on Internet gambling. Then President George W. Bush signed into the Port Security Improvement Act of 2006. At the last minute an addition was made to that, entitled The Unlawful Internet Gambling Enforcement Act of 2006 (or UIGEA). This additional act
"prohibits gambling businesses from knowingly accepting payments in connection with the participation of another person in a bet or wager that involves the use of the Internet and that is unlawful under any federal or state law."

As with many of President Bush’s actions, there is an element of, at the very least, curiosity, attached to the passing of this bill. It was passed on the last day before Congress adjourned for the 2006 elections, meaning there was considerably less people around than usual, meaning in turn less competition and debate against or on the bill.

Incredibly, no one on the Senate-House Conference Committee had seen the final language of the bill before it was passed. Bill Frist, former majority leader of the Senate, and Jon Kyl are both credited with progressing the UIGEA's passage through the Senate. More on Mr Frist shortly. This last-minute rulemaking that ‘binds the hands’ of an incoming administration is commonly termed the midnight drop. The final regulations were finalized and released November 12, 2008, and came into effect on January 19, 2009, the day before the Obama administration took office.

That was part one. In part two, Federal authorities ‘dropped the hammer’, as it were. On April 15th 2011, Absolute Poker was named in an indictment by the U.S. Attorney’s Office for the Southern District of New York along with two other popular poker sites — Poker Stars and Full Tilt Poker. The indictment alleges that the sites committed bank fraud, money laundering and illegal gambling offenses by “tricking” U.S. banks into processing online gambling transactions, a violation of the Unlawful Internet Gambling Enforcement Act (which we just discussed). The government seized the websites and more than 75 bank accounts and indicted 11 people on charges of illegal Internet gambling, bank fraud and money laundering.

To say the Internet Casino business in the United States is reeling is a major understatement. So why is all this happening? Why has the US Government basically destroyed the online Casino business? If you strip away all the surrounding noise, it really is pretty simple. Two major factors basically. Bill Frist and his ties to land based Casinos, and then the fact that the US Government doesn’t want to miss out on the profits from gambling.

First to Mr Frist.

Pay attention, because here comes the science part. Which Republican Senator championed the Unlawful Internet Gambling Enforcement Act of 2006? That would be Bill Frist. What does the UIGEA specifically do? It attacks Internet gambling. What interest group has provided thousands of dollars to Bill Frist’s campaign war chests since 1997? Land based Casinos, naturally.

Perhaps you are beginning to see a possible conflict of interests developing here?

The publically available breakdown of Frist’s campaign funding from previous years makes fascinating reading. It is all there in black and white. For the period 1997 to 2002, Harrah's Entertainment contributed $14,250 to the Frist campaign. What does Harrah's Entertainment do? Glad you asked. Caesars Entertainment Corporation (formerly Harrah's Entertainment from 1995 to 2010) is a private gaming corporation that owns and operates over 50 casinos, hotels, and seven golf courses under several brands.



How about Mandalay Resort Group, which, in 2004, contributed $10,000, that was disclosed, to the Frist campaign. Mandalay Resort Group was, prior to its purchase by MGM, a hotel-casino operator based in Las Vegas, Nevada. Its major properties included Mandalay Bay, Luxor, Excalibur and Circus Circus, as well as half of the Monte Carlo. In terms of market capitalization, it was one of the largest land based casino operators in the world.

You would have to imagine it might be in the interest of Harrahs, the Mandalay resort group and other land based Casino contributors to the Frist fund to have its greatest competitors, Internet Casinos, wiped off the map. Does it not strike you as somewhat curious then that one of the politicians they gave large amounts of cash to (and God knows what else) is the champion of a bill that has basically completely destroyed Internet based Casinos in the United States?



We can all see what’s going on there, right?

Now to the second factor, the US Government missing out on potential profits from gambling.

First a very important figure. This is a figure Casinos, both online and land based, don’t want you to know. On average, 8% of those who play online poker turn a profit in any given fiscal year. This is both a commonly known and fiercely protected figure in the gaming community. You can imagine why they don’t want it to become common knowledge. Those in the Casino business are turning a profit against roughly 92% of those who either sit down in front of a computer or come through their doors!

The United States government was very unhappy that the money 92% of people were losing on gambling Web sites was going overseas. They have absolutely no problem with you losing money in State lotteries, United States based horse racing and or a Vegas Casino. It just doesn't want the money flowing to operators of these overseas Web sites.

You can focus on the devastating financial impact the US Governments crusade has and will have on the fat cats of the Internet poker industry, and stifle a laugh, however make no mistake, the proverbial common man is being hit as hard if not harder than the rich. The online poker companies named in the federal indictment are either already broke, or heading in the same direction. Players who had money with them will probably never see that money again. Shareholders are also left holding thin air. The owners of those companies are obviously in big trouble, but spare a thought for the common staff who are about to or already have lost their jobs.

This brings us back to Pocket Kings in Dublin. Those 700 people are all taxpaying, law abiding citizens. Talented graphic designers, translators, Project Managers, Quality Assurance specialists, software engineers and everything in between. They do not deserve to be out of work.

To illustrate how global an issue this is, in Costa Rica, where Absolute Poker and UB (formerly Ultimate Bet) have their operations center, more than 300 customer support and marketing employees – approximately 95 percent of the staff — have already been let go. All over the world people are going to lose their jobs because Bill Frist is funded by land based Casinos, and the US Government is too short sighted to bring internet gambling ‘back into the fold’ and make it a government regulated, audited and taxable commodity.

This last point raises one last serious issue.

Much like the wildly unsuccessful Prohibition act of the 1930s, where people still found a way to drink, people are still going to play poker, people are still going to place bets. The US Government claims to be attempting to combat organized crime, when all they are doing is actively pushing people into the waiting, open arms of same. Instead of basically making a martyr out of it, strong regulation, taxing and auditing of the online gambling world would have had many positive knock-on effects.

It would not, however, have lined Bill Frist’s pockets with cash. And perhaps that’s the single biggest reason 'Joe Punter' is going to be doing his betting in an alley or a bar, handing over his cash to dubious, shady bookies. Perhaps that’s the single largest reason why thousands of talented, hard working people worldwide are now out of a job.

More and more stories are cropping up online where long time online poker players are finding themselves sitting at a $5 table in some Casino in Vegas. They are sitting there because their favourite online tables have been shut down. Those were shut down by a bill championed by Bill Frist. That gentleman’s political life has been funded in part by those same land based Casinos that our lonely, somewhat lost former online player is now sitting in.

Call it whatever you want, the circle of life, the food chain, the American Dream. Whatever it is, it’s blatantly obvious what’s going on. I hope, at the very least, Bill Frist gets the best comped rooms available in Vegas when he’s in town.

He has certainly earned it.


George and Bill, and portrait.



Linkage



Comments

Comments welcome! Free and open debate and communication are some of the most enjoyable aspects of life. Please leave a comment, disagreements welcome! If you disagree, debate your case by all means. However, anything rude, spiteful or any cowardly anonymous personal attacks will be not be tolerated and will be deleted.